BLACK SWAN CAPITAL
We are a subscription-based foreign exchange research & trading firm (we trade our own money) and produce clearly defined forex trading signals and forecasts covering the major currency pairs, across varying time frames, in our flagship subscription-based service--Black Swan Forex.
Our analysis is market-driven; i.e. price based, and actionable. Our research is grounded in the precision and mystery of Phi – the Golden Ratio; with the tactical application being Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels and extensions.
Additionally, we provide intermediate-term directional trading ideas in our Key Market Strategies service covering the following exchange traded funds: SPY (S&P 500 stocks), EEM (emerging market stocks etf), TLT, USO (oil), UUP (US dollar), WEAT (wheat etf), CORN (corn etf), and BAL (cotton).
We have a simple goal: help our clients apply their money to make more money..
The Black Swan Story.
The Black Swan goes to the heart of our belief that no matter how sophisticated traders think they are, no matter how elegantly they believe they have “modeled the market,” no matter how strong their past performance has been, there is an event lingering out there that cannot be predicted—a Black Swan event, if you will.
This idea of a “Black Swan event” flows from the renowned German philosopher Karl Popper. In his famous essay entitled, The Problem of Induction, Popper said:
“A scientific idea can never be proven true, because no matter how many observations seem to agree with it, it may still be wrong.”
He used the simple example of swans to illustrate his point. For many years people believed all swans were white. There were literally millions of observations of white swans that “proved” the theory that in fact all swans were white. Yet, it was the discovery of a single black swan, living in Australia, which invalidated a theory based on millions of prior observations.
As speculators, we find Popper’s logic extremely poignant. It reminds us: There is no Holy Grail. It’s one of our core beliefs. And it naturally leads us to two primary conclusions about the market:
· No model can determine the degree of risk lingering in markets.
· Trading is a probability bet.
You don't need to know, or believe you can forecast, in order to make money in markets. But, we believe, you do need to consistently apply a systematic approach (an edge), grounded in human nature (Elliott Wave), and manage risk and profit (stops) in order to be successful in markets over time.