USD/JPY 240-min View – Setting up for another short trade?

FX Service Issue: 7/31/18

USD/JPY 240-min View – Setting up for another short trade?

31 July 2018/3:11 p.m. ET

View: Corrective rally in Wave 2.

USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) of [2] to 107.87 (106.82 alternate target). 

Key Resistance: 112.19 Support: 110.61

Strategy: Looking to get short for a push down toward 107.87.

073118 jpy 240 2.png

Comment

USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

USD/CAD Short Trade Setup
23 July 2018/8:18 a.m. ET

USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851--a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week's inflation report.  And that is showing up in the 2-year yield spread comparing CA-US (next chart below).  Additionally, position in CAD is bearish; thus plenty of buying power on a re-think there (third chart below).

072318 cad daily.png

The 2-year yield spread CA-US is rising in favor of Canada of late...

072318 cad us spread.png

Canadian dollar (CAD-USD) currency futures positioning CME...lots of bears; if they change sides it represents some nice buying power for the Loonie. 

072618 cad cme pos.png

Comment

USD/CAD Daily: Maybe a corrective top in place? Gold correlation?

USD/CAD Daily - Corrective top may be in place...(and gold correlation)
28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET

The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have been correlated in here (second chart below). 

062818 cad daily.png

USD/CAD versus Gold (price inverted): The price series have been well correlated; thus a strengthening dollar should coincide with gold strength if this correlation continues.  Gold does appear a bit "oversold" at the moment. (see next chart below)

062818 gold vs cad.png

Gold Daily: Testing key swing low support and looking a bit "oversold."

062818 gold.png

Comment