US-China "Trade Deal" Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play)

If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we measure the retracement made in the pair from the low at 75.21 (instead of using the spike low the bar before) we are at a 78.6% retracement level; and 2) If we breakdown the move from the 80.71 high into three waves, we get a nice symmetrical A-B-C into the low, whereby Wave C=Wave A.  Additionally, the momentum oscillators are turning up from “oversold” territory. 

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Turkey vs. South Africa. Which country do you think has a brighter future?

Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C Wave, into the low near 2.0000. Also note the extension of Wave 5 of the larger (C) Wave is a perfect 61.8% extension of Wave 3 of (C). Hmmm….needless to say, given the inherent volatility, this is a long-term position trade long.

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+61%...Black Swan Forex Track Record Year-to-date thru March 2019

We are having a good year. We tweaked our analysis framework in late December of 2018 after two poor months of trading, though a decent year. It appears to be paying off so far. But, every moment in the market is unique, as the late great Mark Douglas said. So we shall see. If you are serious about forex you may want to give us a look.

We won’t wow you with guru-ism, lots of narrative, and marketing promotion; but we will give you focused and independent fx trading ideas.

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Detail by month…

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