If commodities continue to weaken, it is likely the Canadian dollar follows...

Below is a chart of USD/CAD versus the TR Commodities Index (inverted so you can better see the visual correlation with the spot market currency pair). If our contention that the commodities super cycle is over (see chart next page from yesterday's Currency Currents), it suggests the Canadian dollar may have peaked in value against the US dollar, i.e. a USD/CAD bottom.

Currency Currents 20 December 2012

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