Elliott Wave + Sentiment Analysis = 48% Return Year-to-date

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“"Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt"

                                                                        William Shakespeare

Commentary & Analysis

Elliott Wave + Sentiment Analysis = 48% Return Year-to-date

Let’s be clear, no one can forecast markets.  But, there are times when we “have the right to forecast” markets, as John Percival says.  Or put another way, Mr. Market rarely hands us a gift and when he does we should take it.  The euro at 1.3800 against the US dollar in this macro global environment with political turmoil rising across the eurozone and a crystalized consensus bet QE will go on forever seemed like one of those times we had a “right to forecast” and should take the gift Mr. Market was handing us. 

Thanks to that, my Black Swan Forex clients are sitting on about 265 pips open profit on their short EUR/USD position; that represents about $2,650 profit per every contract owned (regular sized retail contracts).   And though it always makes sense to take some profits off the table on the way, and do our best to lock in some open gains, I think there is a lot more left in the short euro trade.

Here is the weekly forecast (below) I sent to my Black Swan Forex clients back on 22 October 2013; I said at the time: “Looking to get short near 1.3844 save (b) or 61.8% retrace weekly and an hourly confluence extension level.” 

Below was the hourly chart setup I sent up I sent on 22 October:

The high in EUR/USD came at 1.3832 three days later on 25 October 2013; I was off by 12 pips.  But Elliott wasn’t the only thing I was looking at; I was watching the sentiment background and it looked good for shorting EUR/USD. 

First of all, the US dollar doom and gloomers were emerging from the woodwork; we usually see them in force near a major bottom in the buck.  Matt Drudge was posting the dollar doom articles on his website, and newsletter writers were bantering about the yuan replacement of the dollar idea—again!  Second, given the indicators we use, it was clear real positioning for punters was turning quite bullish for the euro.  [Remember the adage; the public is right in the middle but wrong at the ends.] 

So, many of the things Black Swan looks for were clicking into place in a classic fashion, and you know what that means?  It means it is time to place a bet.  And we did. 

…this morning the euro is at 1.3494 as I write; that’s a cool 338 pips lower from the recent high…and our clients are sitting on 263 of them…and looking for a lot more.

As of this morning we are up 48% year-to-date in our forex service. It hasn’t been a straight line.  Wave had our drawdowns.  But, the clients who have stayed with us have been rewarded. 

Overall Black Swan Forex is easy to understand and follow.  It offers ACTIONABLE trades for real people; it’s not for scalpers. We always share our rationales for a trade, technical and/or fundamental.  We hold positions for on average for 3.6 days.  This is an important statistic for you as I strongly believe one of the major advantages for retail forex traders is positional.  You don’t and shouldn’t fight intraday against the big boys…you don’t have to trade…and when you do make a trade, do it for a good reason …in a proper time frame …and let it run…then look for opportunities to either reduce you exposure or lock in profits along the way…that is what we do in BSFX.


So if you want to make real money in the forex market over time and want technically and fundamentally sound trading ideas you can follow…then Black Swan Forex is for you…

Learn more >

Added bonus for subscribers: Our new Special Report available to clients only…

In this report I lay out the major global macro and thematic rationales to support a continued multi-year bull market in the buck.  

Have a great weekend.


Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital



*Black Swan Forex




2013 Closed Positions
















1) Based on 1 (one) contract per trade (w/two exceptions wich no material impact). 

2) Based on trading 100k contract size per pair


3) Assumes entry and exit of trading postions based on exact suggested levels

    indicated in original and follow-up issues (no slippage or commission).

4) Initial account value for return calculation is $50,000.












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