Déjà vu; is it 1937 all over again?

We are not sure if we get a replay of 1937-a 50% market decline after a big rally from the low in 1932--but it feels a bit eerie to say the least.  Now we have an extremely "overbought" stock market...false belief in a cyclical recovery...troubles in Europe...and rising tensions in Asia.  I think a simple question is in order:  Is risk skewed to the upside or downside?  You know my answer. 

Currency Currents 26 February 2013