"It ain't over till it's over."
Commentary & Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily [last 16,711]: In a modified wave methodology, larger wave patterns are counted as three wave moves—consistent with Dow Theory (whereas Elliott Wave looks at 5 waves to make up a sequence). In the chart below, the measuring distance or projection of Wave C (blow-off rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average) targets 16,817. I had calculated that target a while back, but honestly didn’t believe we’d see the Dow move this high. That’s what you get from not believing in your charts.
At 16,817, wave A and C are equivalent—this is the highest probability target using a three-wave approach; but obviously it is no Holy Grail. “Nobody rings a bell at the top.” “Top picking is a mug’s game.” But, this technical analysis suggests we are getting very close to a major top.
Also notice on the chart (below) the interesting divergence pattern between price and momentum we saw last time we got a decent correction back in 2011.
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