Is the TOP in stocks here or at least very near?

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Quotable

"It ain't over till it's over."

                                 Yogi Berra

Commentary & Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily [last 16,711]:  In a modified wave methodology, larger wave patterns are counted as three wave moves—consistent with Dow Theory (whereas Elliott Wave looks at 5 waves to make up a sequence).  In the chart below, the measuring distance or projection of Wave C (blow-off rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average) targets 16,817.  I had calculated that target a while back, but honestly didn’t believe we’d see the Dow move this high.  That’s what you get from not believing in your charts. 

At 16,817, wave A and C are equivalent—this is the highest probability target using a three-wave approach; but obviously it is no Holy Grail.  “Nobody rings a bell at the top.”  “Top picking is a mug’s game.”  But, this technical analysis suggests we are getting very close to a major top. 

Also notice on the chart (below) the interesting divergence pattern between price and momentum we saw last time we got a decent correction back in 2011. 

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Jack Crooks

President, Black Swan Capital

www.blackswantrading.com

info@blackswantrading.com

Twitter: @bswancap

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