Oil $10 per barrel—Are you nuts? Not if stocks help the process along…

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“If you are going to use probability to model a financial market, you had better use the right kind of probability.  Real markets are wild.  Their price fluctuations can be hair-raising—far greater and more damaging than the mild variations of orthodox finance.”

Benoit Mandelbrot, The Misbehavior of Markets.

Commentary & Analysis

Oil $10 per barrel—Are you nuts?  Not if stocks help the process along…

The news concerning China’s decision to devalue its currency could have broad implications for the global economy.  The key question is will stocks wake to the reality of the growing disconnect between the financial and real economy—has the valuation rubber-band stretched far enough?


Jack Crooks

President, Black Swan Capital



Twitter: @bswancap