China’s Currency Goes Lower, Maybe a Lot Lower

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“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”


Commentary & Analysis

China’s Currency Goes Lower, Maybe a Lot Lower

Chinese leaders made a big mistake.  They trusted the forecasts of Western economists who assured them, at least implicitly, growth would rebound sharply after the 2007-2008 Credit Crunch as the big guns of monetary and fiscal policy were switched to auto-fire. 

So China got busy doing what it does very well—adding more manufacturing capacity and growing infrastructure and building cities on the expectation of grabbing increasing levels of global share from rivals as the world rebounded and capital flooded into the country.  The world hasn’t rebounded to the degree needed to fill those factories and utilize all that capacity. And capital has been heading away from China lately, not towards it.


Jack Crooks

President, Black Swan Capital

Twitter: @bswancap