China’s Three Choices, the Reserve Currency Fable, and the Far-East Parallel

Quotable

“The cardinal responsibility of leadership is to identify the dominant contradiction at each point of the historical process and to work out a central line to resolve it.”

--Mao Zedong

Commentary & Analysis

China’s Three Choices, the Reserve Currency Fable, and the Far-East Parallel

As 2017 approaches, China faces the same three trade-offs it has faced since the country began to focus on the need for rebalancing its economy thanks to the impact of the 2007-2008 Credit Crunch; it changed the symbiotic relationship between China and the United States (see page 20) and made clear the need for China to rebalance its economy away from investment cum exports to more local consumerism.

Professor Michael Pettis, who has been singing the song of China’s reckoning for several years, well before it became clear to other analysts, bases his three trade-offs about china on two key assumptions, both I believe are spot on...read more

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