Commodities Turning? Gold, Copper, Nat Gas, Oil and Stock Commodity Ratio

11:05 a.m. ET

The commodity wave charts we tack suggest what we may already know, commodities seem poised for a bounce...here is a look at a few...

Gold Futures Daily: Rally from a wedge pattern...targets to 1,333; then 1,420...swing resistance at 1,300; then 1,380...

030716 gold.png

Copper Futures Daily:  Confluence support held near 1.930...with divergence into the low (RSI divergence lower pane of the chart); first target to 2.532...

Natural Gas Futures Daily:  Still well below its long-term trend line resistance, but coming into a key extension target at 1.587, i.e. wave A = wave C...again seeing divergence into the low...

Oil Futures: Not sure how to label the longer term view yet; but interesting things going on here technically. 1) For the first time since 7/22/14 do we have a break of the downtrend resistance line (dotted red); and the 72-day moving average breaking above said line: 2) Wave A almost exactly equal to the last Wave down labeled C, which targeted a low of 26.17 (actual low was 26.05); 3) equivalence in time on wave A & C, being 77 days and 85 days, respectively; and 4) divergence into the low as seen in the RSI (lower pane of the chart)...heading into first major resistance at Wave A low 38.18...and swing high at 37.79...a rest here then rally toward 50$

Stock vs. Commodities Ratio: We have been tracking this ratio (comparing relative performance of stocks versus the Thomson/Reuters Commodities Index) for a while now; it gave us a hint in the past the commodities cycle was over. Now the ratio seems to be hitting some resistance at a key retracement level--76.8%.  It would be some confirmation of the charts above...stay tuned...

With commodities starting to look very interesting again, Black Swan is considering a new service based purely on our Elliott Wave and other pattern analysis.  We would utilize the most active ETF's for for our pattern analysis, covering: S&P, Emerging Markets, Long Bonds, Gold, Oil, and the US Dollar Index.  We will not be giving specific buy/sell suggestions as we do in our forex and currency options services, but would be delivering our technical analysis and comments twice a week to allow you to utilize ETF's and/or options on ETF's based on our directional updates.  

If something such as that, at a very nominal price, is made available please let us know if you might have an interest. 

Thank you. 

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

www.blackswantrading.com 

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