Long bond comments

News & Comment
9 Sep 2016/7:29 a.m. 

If you have been following our Key Market Strategies issues, we have been expecting a sell-off in US long bonds (higher yields) based on the developed wave setup---a triangle pattern (which is a continuation pattern)--as you can see in the chart below using the exchange traded fund (TLT - 20-yr bond index) as the measure :

30-yr Treasury Bond Futures off 24/32nds today (almost a full point)....2-yr Notes flat....

The implication is the dollar regains yield cover; and it may increase sentiment/expectations for a future Fed hike.  This in turn should be dollar bullish.  The additional takeaway is if, and a big if, this move in bonds roils the stock market (and I suspect it will) then the dollar gets a risk bid added to the yield cover.  This is a big part of why we remain dollar bullish despite the palpable change in sentiment from some quarters.   

If we do get a break in stocks, we would suspect the usual:

- USD/JPY to remain supported and maybe EUR/USD too
- Comdols and the pound to get hit; comdols the most

www.blackswantrading.com

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