News & Comment
9 Sep 2016/7:29 a.m.
If you have been following our Key Market Strategies issues, we have been expecting a sell-off in US long bonds (higher yields) based on the developed wave setup---a triangle pattern (which is a continuation pattern)--as you can see in the chart below using the exchange traded fund (TLT - 20-yr bond index) as the measure :
30-yr Treasury Bond Futures off 24/32nds today (almost a full point)....2-yr Notes flat....
The implication is the dollar regains yield cover; and it may increase sentiment/expectations for a future Fed hike. This in turn should be dollar bullish. The additional takeaway is if, and a big if, this move in bonds roils the stock market (and I suspect it will) then the dollar gets a risk bid added to the yield cover. This is a big part of why we remain dollar bullish despite the palpable change in sentiment from some quarters.
If we do get a break in stocks, we would suspect the usual:
- USD/JPY to remain supported and maybe EUR/USD too
- Comdols and the pound to get hit; comdols the most