Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

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Quotable

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

--Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC                                                                                                      

Commentary & Analysis

Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

In the real-world prices are driven by a tangled web of rationales which manifest into a complex array of feedback loops.   I think this explains why it is so painfully difficult to determine which variables lead and which follow in a supposed correlation. The word “supposed” is used because correlation is not causality; and worst still, causality itself is suspect as Sir Karl Popper explains (below)...READ MORE

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