Path of the dollar = Path of commodities?

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“There are as many styles of beauty as there are visions of happiness.”

--Stendhal (aka Marie-Henri Beyle)

Commentary & Analysis

Path of the dollar = Path of commodities?


It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”).  Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the late great Mark Douglas: “Every moment in the market is unique.” 

That being said, because decision-making and forecasting skills of the average human have not changed much since the beginning of time; i.e. we continue to see similar reactions across a fractal time frame which shows up as price patterns; albeit some differences which may be the result of high frequency trading a la algos.  (As an aside, it seems despite individual’s attaining no better skill in forecasting, they have attained much higher confidence-levels.  We can thank the dramatic increase in access to technology—producing vast amounts of data—for the spike in confidence levels.  But, arguably, this fact has led to even less critical thought across the body of players who make up this thing called a market.  And it may be a contributing factor for the next major market debacle.)

From that summary, I share one premise and two thoughts about market price action derived from chart patterns I watch day in and day out...READ MORE