USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

USD/CAD Short Trade Setup
23 July 2018/8:18 a.m. ET

USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851--a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week's inflation report.  And that is showing up in the 2-year yield spread comparing CA-US (next chart below).  Additionally, position in CAD is bearish; thus plenty of buying power on a re-think there (third chart below).

072318 cad daily.png

The 2-year yield spread CA-US is rising in favor of Canada of late...

072318 cad us spread.png

Canadian dollar (CAD-USD) currency futures positioning CME...lots of bears; if they change sides it represents some nice buying power for the Loonie. 

072618 cad cme pos.png