US-China "Trade Deal" Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play)

If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we measure the retracement made in the pair from the low at 75.21 (instead of using the spike low the bar before) we are at a 78.6% retracement level; and 2) If we breakdown the move from the 80.71 high into three waves, we get a nice symmetrical A-B-C into the low, whereby Wave C=Wave A.  Additionally, the momentum oscillators are turning up from “oversold” territory. 

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