2019 Track Record Summary Year-to-date & June Detail

Based on a trading account of $25,000, we are up approximately 68% year to date. One losing month-May; we were down 3.7%. Largest draw-down was in April, at $2,134.

Year-to-date Summary

Assumptions : 1) Based on 1 (one) or 1/2 regular contract per trade idea; regular sized forex or 100,000 units per contract. 2) Assumes entry and exit of trading positions based on exact suggested levels indicated in original and follow-up issues (no slippage or commission).  Disclaimer: Futures, Forex and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not indicative of future performance. Black Swan Capital newsletter services are strictly informational publications and do not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk.

Assumptions: 1) Based on 1 (one) or 1/2 regular contract per trade idea; regular sized forex or 100,000 units per contract. 2) Assumes entry and exit of trading positions based on exact suggested levels indicated in original and follow-up issues (no slippage or commission).

Disclaimer: Futures, Forex and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not indicative of future performance. Black Swan Capital newsletter services are strictly informational publications and do not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk.

June 2019 Track

070119 June to date.png

Comment

Has the buck bottomed? We don't know, but a plausible alternative says yes....

The buck has powered higher, well above our target today.  And it now leaves open the key question: Have we seen a dollar low; i.e. is this the trend move to 102 we have been targeting longer term now underway?

Effectively, we defined the low in our "alternative"  or secondary view we shared earlier in the week.  Here it is again below.  We shared this in a video update.  To summarize again, the low in the dollar index was at Wave c of (c) of [ii] and it represented what is called a "running flat" correction.  So, now, this view takes precedence despite the very extended US dollar index on a near-term basis.  We will have to watch the reaction from this powerful move today.  If a three-wave corrective, it suggest the trend move higher is underway and we have seen the bottom.  More on this on Monday.  

061419 dollar index 2.png


Comment

Do we have one more push lower in the dollar before a big rally? Or is the bottom in?

We suspect we will see one more push lower in the US dollar index. But, it likely depends on whether or not stocks hold up. We remain open to the idea of a major risk-bid powering the dollar higher—which is our scenario for the next rally after a push down toward 95-level. However, said risk-bid could come at any time given the macro/political backdrop.

061419 dollar index.png

Comment