Commodities Essential - October 26, 2011

If I had to summarize everything today, I would say the broad global economic backdrop is net bearish for crude oil. In the near-term, and maybe perhaps even the medium-term, crude oil prices may skirt the macroeconomic pressure and instead move based on the shifting micro fundamentals of the oil market.


 


Crude is testing resistance at the 200-day moving average. Assuming this caps the rally, then there is a pitchfork setup in play that suggests a downtrend could materialize. A break above the upper bound of that pitchfork would invalidate the setup. Prior chart resistance and the 100- and 50-day moving averages now represent support levels.


 


Technically, crude oil may have some upside ahead - we’ll have to see how the week finishes up. But the big picture still suggests the biggest risk is to the downside.


 



Commodities Essential. 26 October 2011


 


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No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.