technical analysis

Update: Silver is having a bad day.

Will it be meaningful?

Last week I noted the price action in gold and silver. The patterns were mostly similar, but the technical indicators and oscillators suggested different outlooks for each precious metal. I asked if silver's relative strength bode well for gold, or if gold's relative weakness bode ill for silver.

After today, it seems gold's bearish tilt is weighing on silver. Click on the link below for a chart and additional commentary.

Commodities Essential. UPDATE 4 December 2012

 

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No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.

Charts

The European Central Bank seemed to have disappointed investors yesterday after a lack of action sent markets reeling. The July US Nonfarm payrolls were reported better than expected today, which has so far sent markets soaring. With no clear advantage to the bulls or bears right now, I think it makes sense to sit tight. Here is what I'm looking at for commodities: 

Commodities Essential. 3 August 2012

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Crisis in confidence or a downturn in commodities – which comes first: chicken or egg?

In the last few weeks I've been watching for signs that investor confidence is at risk of capitulating to dreadful global fundamentals. Once investors capitulate to the reality of horrid fundamentals, markets will finally crack. I think a crisis in confidence, or at least a real taste of one, is around the corner. That said ... let's run through my general thinking on individual commodities: 

Commodities Essential. 20 July 2012

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No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.

Europe. And commodity charts.

Two things are obvious:

1) European leaders cannot agree on the ultimate deals that experts suggest will be needed to stem the crisis, suggesting this wasn't the summit to end all summits.

2) European leaders have accepted that the market is their boss, and today they were forced to reveal their obedience.

Knowing full well they weren't going to get the German Chancellor to budge on Eurobonds or a fiscal debt pact, they needed to do something to keep the market from applying even greater pressure on the button that's making their situation that much harder to handle: interest rates.

Spanish and Italian 10-year rates have been hovering around the critical 6 to 7 percent threshold. As it stands now, Spanish debt is likely to exceed the all-important 90 percent of GDP at which case the debt begins to notably subtract from economic growth. If Spain's borrowing costs are not kept under control, the debt will rise well above the 90 percent debt-to-GDP mark.

Commodities Essential. 29 June 2012

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No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.