euro crisis

Ceteris paribus, the ECB will do whatever it takes.

Certainly, much of the Eurozone crisis expectations have been priced in to risk assets like commodities. But two things, I think, will keep risk-taking under pressure:

  1. Intensification in the revolving door of Eurozone economic contraction, rising European Sovereign debt costs, and financial system pressure.
  2. A realization that the US and China cannot hold up global growth and market sentiment while the Eurozone figures out what "whatever it takes" means.

Bullish? Go ahead and get long, if you believe, ceteris paribus, Draghi & Co. will finally give the system the solution to this crisis that it's been waiting for all along.

Commodities Essential. 26 July 2012

Trade Essentials.

No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.

Europe. And commodity charts.

Two things are obvious:

1) European leaders cannot agree on the ultimate deals that experts suggest will be needed to stem the crisis, suggesting this wasn't the summit to end all summits.

2) European leaders have accepted that the market is their boss, and today they were forced to reveal their obedience.

Knowing full well they weren't going to get the German Chancellor to budge on Eurobonds or a fiscal debt pact, they needed to do something to keep the market from applying even greater pressure on the button that's making their situation that much harder to handle: interest rates.

Spanish and Italian 10-year rates have been hovering around the critical 6 to 7 percent threshold. As it stands now, Spanish debt is likely to exceed the all-important 90 percent of GDP at which case the debt begins to notably subtract from economic growth. If Spain's borrowing costs are not kept under control, the debt will rise well above the 90 percent debt-to-GDP mark.

Commodities Essential. 29 June 2012

Trade Essentials.

No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.