Germans hate fun. Will Greeks and Chinese hate Germans?

Officials in the eurozone have been more willing to mention a possible Greek exit in their public comments, but I imagine they'll spend plenty of time trying to avoid that potentiality.

But, seeing that it's my job to predict the future, I must be open to the scenario of a Greek exit. It's easier to understand what such an event would mean for the rest of the eurozone. But the harder question is: what will it mean for the global economy and financial system?

If China can't come through with a sufficient stimulus effort and Greece exits the euro, China is on the verge of major disappointment.

What seems to matter most, insofar as what China can control, are the stimulus measures the Chinese implement. They really went gung-ho last time. But thanks to real estate bubbles and overinvestment, their hands are tied a bit. They'll try to initiate new infrastructure projects (a favorite in the land of the never-ending build) and spur new lending to consumers and businesses. But as the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Commodities Essential. 25 May 2012

Trade Essentials.

No new recommendations or adjustments at this time.