Balck Swan Webinar Announcements

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"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." Thomas Sowell ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Webinar Announcements ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Greetings!

Today: Auto-Trading Black Swan services

through ClearPoint Capital Management Date: Wednesday, January 22nd

Time: 4:00 pm Central / 5:00 pm Eastern

Register: Click here [https://mccagsr412.clickwebinar.com/ClearPoint_Capital_Auto-Trade/accept/332d560efcc2b9606d033174dfbfff35#.UtVd1KiwX-I]

1) Brief on global macro and topics to be discussed in detail at the Global Macro Webinar next week (see below)

2) Summary of the subscription-based services Black Swan offers

3) ClearPoint Capital will discuss how they can help you trade Black Swan services using their Auto-Trading Program and they will take your live questions

Next Week:Black Swan Global Macro

- Key themes for 2014 and top trade ideas Date: Thursday, January 30th

Time: 4:00 p.m. Eastern

Register:Click here [http://gowoa.me/i/qFR]

Note: Both webinars will be recorded. Thank you. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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This is our flagship newsletter, Currency Currents. Multiple times a week we're committed to bring you a unique perspective on economic, financial and political news that is having, or will have, an impact on world markets. As always, contact us [mailto:info@blackswantrading.com] if you have questions. Sincerely, Jack Crooks President & Chief Trading Officer Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Our Auto-Trading Partner

We're excited to have partnered with ClearPoint Capital Management. They are a firm dedicated to helping you with the mechanics of trading and investing.

Click here to read about what they offer. [http://We're excited to have partnered with ClearPoint Capital Management. They are a firm dedicated to helping you with the mechanics of trading and investing. They offer:] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Our Latest Articles ... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THREE CHARTS AND ONE TRADE IDEA: SHORT GBP/JPY? [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/12/three-charts-and-one-trade-idea-short-gbpjpy.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OH, CANADA, CAN YOUR CURRENCY CRATER [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/11/oh-canada-can-your-currency-crater.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DECEMBER: HISTORY VERSUS TAPER [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/10/december-history-versus-taper.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EU VERSUS US YIELD SPREAD: IT SEEMS TO MATTER FOR THE CURRENCY [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/9/eu-versus-us-yield-spread-it-seems-to-matter-for-the-currenc.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EURO SUMMARY [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/6/euro-summary.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WILL JAPAN SUCCEED? [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/4/will-japan-succeed.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THREE REASONS TO CONSIDER CURRENCY OPTIONS INSTEAD OF [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/2/three-reasons-to-consider-currency-options-instead-of-forex.html] FOREX [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/12/2/three-reasons-to-consider-currency-options-instead-of-forex.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REASON #1: AN ENDING EXPANDING DIAGONAL IN THE [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/11/22/reason-1-an-ending-expanding-diagonal-in-the-dow.html] DOW [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/11/22/reason-1-an-ending-expanding-diagonal-in-the-dow.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/11/21/i-suggest-you-short-the-french-franc-today.html] SUGGEST YOU SHORT THE FRENCH FRANC TODAY [http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency-currents/2013/11/21/i-suggest-you-short-the-french-franc-today.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Elliott Wave | LIVE Updates Free Reports and Analysis from Elliott Wave International. Check it out ... [http://www.blackswantrading.com/elliott-wave-updates/] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Capital's Currency Currents Get it. Read it. GET it. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Currency Options: Your Trial Has Ended - Thank you

BLACK SWAN CURRENCY OPTIONS STRATEGIST

Thank you for sampling our Currency Options Strategist service over the past month. I hope you found it interesting and helpful.

I think using currency options is nice way to trade the currency markets with lower stress and at the same time target above average returns.

If you wish to subscribe to the service, please click on the following link: /currency-options-strategist/?S [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001bb0PKsI9vXXKHCqHWWDksMwxKLZiy3fDMAcfPeXJ2JnV0dKuR6weL5KHpx9IsZHcGAwcOQcg6vqbEzjjE_nzuHH27QEj_vWXijD6zOGivEdRfha2cFuoIlw7QB5_nOlJrjhEhkhXCObFVuIb9i9URQfjfXFaKLqKCRHXZN6b8bRcm4FS-g9WFIW8KgBWX5SpVZfRe9YySEmJXxtpC07ZpQidzJjt1fNi&c=TOn2s-bHv-7WMcwyUa-ldvhUxo5ao-Bk4dtJ7KkqwJ9cWJhf63K7Bg==&ch=vkAh3Q2oi4L5obLRc2lik8snJammw8p2pZvLGqIdxtqYpfZn2mXtOw==]

SScrollPosition=0 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001bb0PKsI9vXXKHCqHWWDksMwxKLZiy3fDMAcfPeXJ2JnV0dKuR6weL5KHpx9IsZHcGAwcOQcg6vqbEzjjE_nzuHH27QEj_vWXijD6zOGivEdRfha2cFuoIlw7QB5_nOlJrjhEhkhXCObFVuIb9i9URQfjfXFaKLqKCRHXZN6b8bRcm4FS-g9WFIW8KgBWX5SpVZfRe9YySEmJXxtpC07ZpQidzJjt1fNi&c=TOn2s-bHv-7WMcwyUa-ldvhUxo5ao-Bk4dtJ7KkqwJ9cWJhf63K7Bg==&ch=vkAh3Q2oi4L5obLRc2lik8snJammw8p2pZvLGqIdxtqYpfZn2mXtOw==]

Also keep in mind that if you are looking for a Canadian-based broker who can assist you with our service, please don't hesitate to contact Drew Zimmerman at Pi Financial [http://www.blackswantrading.com/pi-financial/].

Thank you for your interest in Black Swan Capital. I hope you seriously consider becoming one of our valued clients.

Take care.

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

www.blackswantrading.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001bb0PKsI9vXXKHCqHWWDksMwxKLZiy3fDMAcfPeXJ2JnV0dKuR6weL4lE7r07fCFz3SD3HJydKMsG9vxDt23XHpVh2Sf9XN0bmg-zCN5jc7AJ5UIguBFkbEdUfblZsZzCqe252jFK3jTjwPvCx_yoaYTXeUKPpK_fEJ-0zG9FmPuLhGubjT9MFg==&c=TOn2s-bHv-7WMcwyUa-ldvhUxo5ao-Bk4dtJ7KkqwJ9cWJhf63K7Bg==&ch=vkAh3Q2oi4L5obLRc2lik8snJammw8p2pZvLGqIdxtqYpfZn2mXtOw==]

info@blackswantrading.com [mailto:info@blackswantrading.com] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Capital LLC | 2161 SW Racquet Club Drive | Palm City | FL | 34990

Black Swan Forex: USD/CAD 360-min Forecast - Minor correction or expanding triangle

Update: USD/CAD 360-min Forecast - Standard correction or expanding triangle?

22 November 2013/4:40 p.m. ET

Issue #760

Please click on the link below to view the issue:

https://static.squarespace.com/static/530f66d6e4b05207a038945b/530f6854e4b0f37a89428bdf/530f6858e4b0f37a89429121/1385157216043/112213%20BSF%20cad%20360%20760.pdf [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001dMhsuFI0C5N4edSX6AAi_h80AS4uCfkGs-gEUZKjama_o5gpdhckCOJdlz90rG8ENrLTKvLtcdfoMm32D4dYSUXMnyYnr7tkCbjVn5LhhpMtBCLa4L_39fq-7tMnjXxWy4IFVtAlyWL-eBr7ZMPL01kRnVpmmhnuZkhuoG5kK_dAbQlZ1CJGUzsZZqAw-bv-umIFayYCHmIvqHx_1YutttHYXC2em9LhGfNj8w59HAf7D_pYRsUyNWLIEU0EGs1dOtVmK8u3iUo=&c=LFzcBV2OvRxWxpVSK4YaklLzd6dCM-PcLj2caPCxTUouyi-UTgP6JQ==&ch=G0AJKRdj0K5rtxABy84rY1j_nuaobwOZvAY9ckC9nxHna9PKgN70LA==]

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Capital LLC | 2161 SW Racquet Club Drive | Palm City | FL | 34990

Special Offer to Money Talks Calgary Conference

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Greetings!

I had an excellent time at the MoneyTalks event in Calgary last Sunday. I always enjoy speaking with Michael and Victor, and spending time with the MoneyTalks crew. It is a first-class group of people through and through.

Thank you so much for your interest in the event and wanting to learn more about foreign currency trading and investing.

Please don't forget about the exclusive 1-month free trials to our currency services and free special report on the dollar [http://www.blackswantrading.com/moneytalks-triple-threat-offer] we're offering ONLY TO THOSE WHO REGISTERED FOR MONEYTALKS EVENT (in addition to Black Swan clients).

I sincerely appreciate your interest and enthusiasm for Black Swan Capital.

In addition to the free trials and special report, we also want to take this opportunity to offer some basic information about what we do. Go ahead and peruse the links below.

And for more specific details on what each of our services offers, you can find that information at the "Members Services" menu item on our home page www.blackswantrading.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0012ahpOFTc8dMsxciqVp-X598qav6AykFtdbTmon2Z6I0aOoajzywHr6vkKaEnOp50bGBWEF4pv_wxh4irfQhAWX7gbB_-9UmXAuym685SSfFedfUtsB_qL8TiurKvoKZEmueh7dXQakFzsW9nt0PpNyuvbY-i_QdCtEC6e4vrWaEqLBqAKBnAbg==&c=g_jiDi0L8CapSfkemESW4S_JEa3o69z77nXL4dmqnqx_eIXSCoVYUw==&ch=EUHGCg7VX4V31bbjL3DwuAxO6dHJ-lswLZX_CYmYy-34QypWP8KQ4g==]

Thanks again. And please don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions on my Calgary presentation about currency trading, or the other information we have made available to you.

Regards,

Jack Crooks

President & Chief Trading Officer

Black Swan Capital

Recommended Canadian Broker: For residents of British Columbia and Alberta Canada who are interested in trading the currency futures, options on currency futures; and/or currency Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and currency options on ETFs we recommend Drew Zimmerman of PI Financial Corp. in Vancouver, BC: 604 664 2842 / 1 800 810 7022 / dzimmerman@pifinancial.com [mailto:dzimmerman@pifinancial.com] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From Black Swan Capital ... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A Primer on the Forex Market [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/bsfx/A%20forex%20primer.pdf] By Jack Crooks A comprehensive rundown on key features of the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. Discusses some of the basic terminology and thinking Jack uses to craft his alerts and analysis. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BSFX Service Summary and Walk-through [http://johncrooks.enterthemeeting.com/e/mtg?IH1NSB] By Jack Crooks An in-depth webinar presentation that discusses and walks you through the details of our Black Swan Forex trading service as well as Jack's personal perspective on trading strategy and psychology. Length: 1 hr 26 min ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Useful resources ... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Baby Pips [http://www.babypips.com/school/] The New School of Pipsology is designed to help you acquire the skills, knowledge, and special abilities to become a successful trader in the foreign exchange market. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Forex Glossary [http://www.forexglossary.com] Look up forex lingo and terminology if you get confused by something. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PIP Value Calculator [http://www.earnforex.com/pip-value-calculator] Need to figure out how much money you're risking on a trade? Use the PIP calculator for the hard part ...

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Black Swan Capital | Southwest | Palm City | FL | 34990

Black Swan Forex: EUR/USD Short-term Forecast - Sent to clients on Friday

Update: EUR/USD Short-term Forecast

11 October 2013/5:55 a.m.

Issue #631

EUR/USD Hourly [last 1.3575]: We've already witnessed a sharp rally off the 1.3485 near-term low and now testing a key retracement level at 1.3485 [today's 2nd pivot resistance is at 1.3575; the 3rd comes in at 1.3603]. As indicated in daily forecast, the correction to date from the 1.3645 high appears shallow given how far and how fast euro has rallied against the dollar. Looking for at least 1.3460...but targeting down to 1.3335 [50% retrace daily basis]...

Please click on the link below to view the issue:

https://static.squarespace.com/static/530f66d6e4b05207a038945b/530f6854e4b0f37a89428bdf/530f6858e4b0f37a8942918b/1381485873023/100913%20BSF%20EURUSD%20ST%20631.pdf [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001vnljZ3sSOXghJXJM_okkEt8_Acjtt89lhb5WPpVVDDZNqfcH7RTEy1i3-Zo1MeVXHJnZmIOxDEpng7sBZD-M5ftF2zUVN53D4OHa0qrjjHFhgNJTFvGgxaI-QCexemYJNQVc1w5Z4xJuEKBf6tCBuzHRGGN_Ty4J7VrdC3CHoQyrwmwjfawXPaAp6_-RcW5N22lbJ3Tymo_IDSNWlmR6PQABBcxychzM]

Thank you.

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Capital LLC | 2161 SW Racquet Club Drive | Palm City | FL | 34990

Black Swan Forex: NZD/USD Daily Forecast - Bear flag setup?

Update: NZD/USD Daily Forecast - Bear flag setup? [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001uTGaxOm772lJrV4gOo--edkLM5pXu254Gh4-HDz97y0H4wNIgsBTDbszZr4bUt16lDfYV1z7joc-EfrnWDWNuSeOFMoyG86kOnr_cIf-XzVImkxmQ07zz_3LZQGncEfJJ8MhKZqvqr5bWEEo1u9y8pQjEviDF6YR]

9 October 2013/12:15 p.m. ET

Issue #625

NZD/USD Daily [last 0.8293]: An interesting daily setup seems in play. After a sharp rally that retraced 76.4% from the daily swing low to high, the pair hit resistance. We had a correction then minor test of the high. Looking to sell a break of the near-term low range that comes in at 0.8266...if we get some type of risk-off move, given all the politics swirling, I would suspect commodity currencies get hit. And the strongest of the crowd is NZD...maybe some catch up time is due. Also, commodities are sharply lower today, with crude off over $2 and gold down $2. I think the trade makes sense; but letting the market take us into the position with a sell stop order.

Please click on the link below to view the issue:

https://static.squarespace.com/static/530f66d6e4b05207a038945b/530f6854e4b0f37a89428bdf/530f685ae4b0f37a894296dc/1381335789027/100913%20BSF%20NZDUSD%20Daily%20%20625.pdf [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001uTGaxOm772m3BR5afNoChwf8ciPOW-mYGyMsi68akCQu8PsiG-iw_Aas5wbvaBwElwgDW0X2t4CbUFKZcowoqLL0yxJWTPV7q2xz3NbHk0mwd2Kc_DWHl9GQpJ-vFIEMm9cS3ELdPyANFj9tI_RrjylApopj4WXPE7srWdrAVXJRxmPKHisEPZNb6cTHtOkBbejl0oMxdubKhejZ09X9aaaW7XxKVGmqss4tC1Ny-TM=]

Thank you.

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Capital LLC | 2161 SW Racquet Club Drive | Palm City | FL | 34990

Black Swan Forex: Aussie Daily & Shor-term Forecast from 9/27

30 Sep 2013 AUD/USD Daily and Short-term Forecast shared with clients on Friday (9/27). Please click here to view the issue:

https://static.squarespace.com/static/530f66d6e4b05207a038945b/530f6854e4b0f37a89428bdf/530f6857e4b0f37a89428fbb/1380279449247/092713%20BSF%20587%20AUD%20ST%20and%20Daily.pdf [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001zLp2be3Kwv7J7QggVYBgM_37HDMtqHTVvQZQfVgbvxJBckrKQY2xl3LZhtSYge9ERyZQnIhpatKuMpL4CH4a-wz1F_9Qwn68fmKQKbDMW-D8TboMx2E2gA41P5myalcF9TQn17GGd4FmeZz7BMlulVo6Zw3By6XfvMOCKWeMguQpoLdZRpEPYo_95H-5Q6nnNFoyRkOgiL-B5Nh7Tuj-jY1wJ1C9KIraJ5_RBwuBT44=]

Thank you.

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Forex: Short-term EUR/USD forecast

Update: Short-term forecast EUR/USD

28 August 2013/3:47 a.m. ET

Issue #508

Our next target for EUR/USD is for a test and eventual break of the 1.3205 swing low. It appears two minor waves have been traced and the pair is set to enter a strong minor iii down. Still looking for confirmation on the daily chart, but aggressive accounts may want to consider shorting here, with a stop just above wave ii high at 1.3409.

Please click here to view the chart [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/ccpro-2013/082813%20BSF%20508%20st%20forecast%20eurusd.pdf]

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Forex: EUR/USD Update

Update: EUR/USD Daily

23 August 2013/5:30 p.m. ET

Issue #503

EUR/USD Daily: The pattern analysis below suggests we may have seen the top at 1.3452, which is represented by wave "B"; but I don't think we want play the short side again until we get some decent confirmation. I believe a close below the 21-day moving average (red line) puts the short side in play. The move from low at 1.2754 to the high at 1.3452 can be considered a five-wave impulse move higher (supported by the fundamentals of stabilization across the Eurozone and a recovering Germany, plus rising relative yield); that is how I have counted this move in the chart below. But, we need to keep in mind that a B-wave, or any degree, can retrace up to 99.9% and still keep the overall pattern analysis in play. I hope that doesn't sound like too much mumbo-jumbo, but it is a rule we have to work with. Any move above 1.3711 suggest there is a major change in the global macro view of the world by traders, and may signal the longer term dollar bear market is back in play (more there will be coming soon as I am working on a special report updating the multi-year bull market view in the buck). I still think reward is skewed to the downside. But for now, waiting for confirmation and using the 21-day moving average as that confirmation. Presently, we still have a degree of divergence on the Relative Strength Index (the green line at the bottom of the chart), i.e. the recent high at 1.3452 has not been met by a new high in the RSI. I will keep you posted.

Please click here to view the EUR/USD chart. [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/ccpro-2013/082313%20BSF%20503%20eur%20update.pdf]

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Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Euro price action confusing at best. But isn't it always?

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Euro price action confusing at best...But isn't it always? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Greetings!

...There is no doubt the stuff I just talked about is what we know. And what we know is usually already embedded in the price, to a large degree. It's the stuff we don't know--money flow underneath the surface in a dynamic system with free-flowing capital across borders-that ends up confounding us. Regardless of what the headline fundamentals read in newspapers, prices are moved by real people moving real money for lots of reasons we may learn after the fact or never. This is one element. Surprise is the second element.

Read more ...

Currency Currents 17 August 2013 [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/currency-currents/081713%20bscc%20euro%20price%20action.pdf] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Latest articles ... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I SOLEMNLY DECLARE THE EUROZONE HEALED. (JUST [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgPZFkkFxd8qICUTOtwgkJt3CijvB_Sed9BBu72zkzwO7PHEbu0_fsGAdAUPf7w9EBJ-o-D6lpFnCb3z0g61UpMz8KJrftFCUPzDJrt_GyKtCUzWhEBFU6NdeWzck9jbMhBhoibrb-f2XxScd-JXvAmN83KlGDP8JpbmEO9OxIkOIcRylTlB5-fSRIYEKDi3CwvUiW9c8KhIubUeodKuP7oMYjn4rN2uJAoxz5tSua88qIlkW45RhqM] KIDDING!) [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgPZFkkFxd8qICUTOtwgkJt3CijvB_Sed9BBu72zkzwO7PHEbu0_fsGAdAUPf7w9EBJ-o-D6lpFnCb3z0g61UpMz8KJrftFCUPzDJrt_GyKtCUzWhEBFU6NdeWzck9jbMhBhoibrb-f2XxScd-JXvAmN83KlGDP8JpbmEO9OxIkOIcRylTlB5-fSRIYEKDi3CwvUiW9c8KhIubUeodKuP7oMYjn4rN2uJAoxz5tSua88qIlkW45RhqM] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CHINA IS BETWEEN ROCKS AND HARD [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjhdgzuGHwxbUcidNfsu2poUkmJP7Mtp5F1S2Wx7lKVQft9avohRNgLvOkdIFscWs6X56jzM5KfkCYoA5YXtnequ7T8zkkIExB2sUNRsJgYxdDtoAhj4T0iPapIL7VeZbO66N5GraJJ_XgFKew55tduVxWC91Dy6yxRncTm4TMfb3XS6kFceZY-GWszjDTXoq8rKnL_RVN0a50JzU2NWN2d9zzaJiTLQKg=] PLACES [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjhdgzuGHwxbUcidNfsu2poUkmJP7Mtp5F1S2Wx7lKVQft9avohRNgLvOkdIFscWs6X56jzM5KfkCYoA5YXtnequ7T8zkkIExB2sUNRsJgYxdDtoAhj4T0iPapIL7VeZbO66N5GraJJ_XgFKew55tduVxWC91Dy6yxRncTm4TMfb3XS6kFceZY-GWszjDTXoq8rKnL_RVN0a50JzU2NWN2d9zzaJiTLQKg=] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TIMING GOLD: ROUND [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgvmMEifQ-rsp3NNAEqW41HkX3au1XQ5sYPSGK1wOiIVwZyUH9jen_ihnxBvyTNJt0dSz-hIMM5O_Abni5QIe3f9gSijXtHmcdAeyw57J0tTj7HeQwR_ltFWIsTtTZTiB0gBAC-PU0PA_atL8cmfB7BwI-xNF1JzD-6FXZHPKAcX-AtZGrdpW6Kte-FWgzHg_fojhxY4L7IVw==] 2 [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgvmMEifQ-rsp3NNAEqW41HkX3au1XQ5sYPSGK1wOiIVwZyUH9jen_ihnxBvyTNJt0dSz-hIMM5O_Abni5QIe3f9gSijXtHmcdAeyw57J0tTj7HeQwR_ltFWIsTtTZTiB0gBAC-PU0PA_atL8cmfB7BwI-xNF1JzD-6FXZHPKAcX-AtZGrdpW6Kte-FWgzHg_fojhxY4L7IVw==] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AS USUAL, WE'RE AHEAD OF THE CURVE: THE CHINA-JAPAN [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgM99nACh4_ghA_NfrSH8Pxzv1ynW66AGsea22fL_5V3oFMRMVrH9XDybE6dTMKfagQc_uajb5Rh_7giGUPYfEHIkHwg8SdLdKj6BW5sKTxNSIU5ALp7xl5QkRw_wpBhdhHtTJLPOdkPOovZPC0W4em2UpRcyuAZeMfs1SIdISK-pQ2ZvrdA8xYJhdnIpdafu6MBksf1xNgXPzZLhkQmj5_HIPD9k0kIHwqyY0c3qb70tuGcQMg1JiM6Z94az0vCS8=] PARALLEL [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRgM99nACh4_ghA_NfrSH8Pxzv1ynW66AGsea22fL_5V3oFMRMVrH9XDybE6dTMKfagQc_uajb5Rh_7giGUPYfEHIkHwg8SdLdKj6BW5sKTxNSIU5ALp7xl5QkRw_wpBhdhHtTJLPOdkPOovZPC0W4em2UpRcyuAZeMfs1SIdISK-pQ2ZvrdA8xYJhdnIpdafu6MBksf1xNgXPzZLhkQmj5_HIPD9k0kIHwqyY0c3qb70tuGcQMg1JiM6Z94az0vCS8=] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

YIELD DIFFERENTIAL STILL SEEMS IN CHARGE OF EURO VERSUS US [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjpq7R2h5fSC6sR8LW3sdzkYkoI4i5oobYXpnqVUvZvQt1QlJCrGEgwC9kQM6zxL4wIKyTzhp2terCVNy8F6bSYFgQ7usootV4x1wgKIGUZ5xQlUhc28FpXvgbwtQ7K2LszMfmSgQC0LApGWDzacrDltr12v5h6TnKXUor8oqelkEk-lzbVJHdCISiIr20fj-17eTPSld2MSa87ZxT3SSn4EXW7JE8TstLuMGFYwGNWJXEmdG1_NsnTqtQP6PDVk70=] DOLLAR [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjpq7R2h5fSC6sR8LW3sdzkYkoI4i5oobYXpnqVUvZvQt1QlJCrGEgwC9kQM6zxL4wIKyTzhp2terCVNy8F6bSYFgQ7usootV4x1wgKIGUZ5xQlUhc28FpXvgbwtQ7K2LszMfmSgQC0LApGWDzacrDltr12v5h6TnKXUor8oqelkEk-lzbVJHdCISiIr20fj-17eTPSld2MSa87ZxT3SSn4EXW7JE8TstLuMGFYwGNWJXEmdG1_NsnTqtQP6PDVk70=] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

IS THE NIKKEI TELLING US THE US DOLLAR "CORRECTION" IS OVER? [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRg_t60t3HTdDQEUEA91vRw5HaKzVP3GWNTqtpVFOiquEumgr4E-n-_1eH5bWLm5Km_trFdMJeweEbzu1qzAhjvN9VRD7qfua_yImLGOeZUdKOvV5aED8dEkugXFdSIFBsv0hDONwK_HoLZRNZwhohzSR7EoxRFDLPqTZwiiRKHdDWXeZ9gqEPD_sB0geRsXzunmiHJfr_re7QJQEUyIRRSJv0igWI66blyv7f8QMyFe8LIErvETWte55j4BShFEsCE=] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COLLISION COURSE: CHINA AND JAPAN...STARRING THE EUROZONE, WITH US IN A CAMEO [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRivpmRgQE3uR0mHMtETuQkBjHdrPTWamA7tgk8iqaQYH2uEGTUdZ040sddmJKDo9NtFkRZGBtuAP1lvVzbiN0YfgD1hyhuWTBPSlMpied2bfytO-AeSTXIuLLR3d1XDax33AsXhocwbB9ZjyQw4mngOpvDgW8Ig44Xj4S11VOMvqoDkXKMpGoU_nCp5xkrYjW17PxkiIYIuNgh1o9py1fqnpDHnSrm3GDEjs6yNTrmuG9WTpnWFfqGqwZTyFQSDNGk=] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REALLY? SHOULD TODAY'S CHINA NEWS BE [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjUi-t7VtzkjEQA4LlSTeLXlryua4T-zAYVhHZJnOlGkvhJQmBVcBKmsTzeQ3IY2Lz4UsI_5qNvR5oVwTz_ItW1akfxzsR05nXNEUsc1fU8vSSth3zLuDwuICbEJr2qElR3cgYa6ozerC35O9TyeU11zK_IzqONREnvaxXsDaRWShyWOfSLZ1KqiqiEnybcwFm4jVNHUZG00OGrLMaLxaKILvuGHIAGJi_R18ALhi4fWw==] REASSURING? [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=0010Ak0v-UevRjUi-t7VtzkjEQA4LlSTeLXlryua4T-zAYVhHZJnOlGkvhJQmBVcBKmsTzeQ3IY2Lz4UsI_5qNvR5oVwTz_ItW1akfxzsR05nXNEUsc1fU8vSSth3zLuDwuICbEJr2qElR3cgYa6ozerC35O9TyeU11zK_IzqONREnvaxXsDaRWShyWOfSLZ1KqiqiEnybcwFm4jVNHUZG00OGrLMaLxaKILvuGHIAGJi_R18ALhi4fWw==] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Black Swan Forex: Weekly Chart View

Update: Weekly Chart View Major Pairs

26 June 2013/11:03 a.m. ET

Issue #441

No open positions.

Actions:

Stopped out of long USD/JPY per issue #439 with loss of 47 pips

The weekly charts continue to support the view the US dollar is in the midst of a long-term uptrend against the pack. The charts below include wave count, 21- vs. 55-day exponential moving average, and MACD.

Key summary:

* Interesting that EUR/USD & USD/CHF only now entering a 21 vs. 54-week moving average crossover, i.e. EUR/USD down and USD/CHF up AUD/USD appears oversold on the MACD; but clearly the trend is down * GBP/USD following the triangle wave pattern very nicely * USD/JPY looks to go much higher; looking oversold at the moment weekly.

Please click here to view the issue [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/ccpro-2013/062613%20BSF%20Update%20Weekly%20View.pdf]

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

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Black Swan Forex: AUD/USD Setup - Bollinger Bands

Update: AUD/USD Setup Hourly Bollinger Bands

21 June 2013/2:22 p.m. ET

Issue #433

Often when you see the narrowing on the Bollinger Bands as are now apparent in the hourly chart of AUD/USD, there can be a sharp breakout, one way or the other. I believe AUD/USD is extremely oversold, and with global stocks acting a bit better today, I am playing for a sharp near-term breakout higher. Time will tell.

[Our buy-stop entry per issue #427 is above 0.9258 which represents the swing high level...]

Please click here to view the issue [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/ccpro-2013/062113%20BSF%20Update%20433%20bollinger%20bands.pdf]

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

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Currency Currents: Chinese Exports - Implications - FX Price Action

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Part I: China exports booming; imports not so much! The US dollar likes it. But there are vast strategic implications for the global monetary system in play (covered in Part II on Monday)

Last night China reported a big export number, up 21.8 per cent for the month of February, well above the expectation of a 10.1 per cent rise. Yet on the flip side, imports for the month were dismal; down 15.2 per cent, which was well below expectation of an 8 per cent drop.

What might be the takeaways here? In short, there are many. Assuming the Chinese export number can be believed [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001jaKPzvgDKa04xxhrYDM881knLMXIvZGDJVkR1oArbCc59iV0QfqC13b9EYrZS6Vq4U3hXSkP_UpWiUpxyCbn2VMF6Jgtz00hL6_q8NAII2Tck9ChHbe05KFWHovKzYpp], then:

Currency Currents [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/currency-currents/030813%20bscc%20china%20exports%20and%20japan.pdf] 8 March 2013 [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/currency-currents/030813%20bscc%20china%20exports%20and%20japan.pdf] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Currency Currents Pro: Positions & Chart View

Update: Positions & CAD Chart View 27 February 2013/10:19 a.m.ET

Issue #144

Positions - Full-boat. I will be looking to take off some risk if things move our way.

Short NZD/USD per issue #130 from 0.8373 - Stop at 0.8250

Long GBP/USD per issue #142 from 1.5134 [last 1.5179]

Short USD/JPY per issue #139 from 91.58 [last 91.52]

Open Order:

Selling USD/CAD per issue #143

USD/CAD Chart ViewUSD/CAD Daily: Looking for a correction back to what is now trend support at least, downtrend going back to Oct. 2011, makes sense at 1.0216. Targeting next key Fib level daily back to 1.0162 (38% of the recent impulse move higher from Feb. 6th labeled ii).

Please click here to view the issue [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/ccpro-2013/022713%20CCPro%20144%20update%20and%20cad%20charts.pdf]

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

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Currency Currents Pro: Update EUR/USD hourly chart

Update: EUR/USD Hourly

25 February 2013/8:20 a.m.ET

Issue #128

EUR/Hourly: Buy the rumor, sell the news-Italy? First key resistance at 1.3322; then 1.3364.

We are short from 1.3305...per issue #127 this morning.

Please click here to view the issue [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/ccpro-2013/022513%20CCPro%20128%20update%20eur%20h.pdf]

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

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Market Vitals: Bond surprise on a growth surprise?

Market Vitals 6 February 2013

Commentary/Action - Bond surprise on a growth surprise?

If you believe as I do that government intervention, which includes central bank money and government spending, is become counterproductive to the economy (a "negative multiplier" so to speak) then the idea of a major negative growth surprise for the US economy is still very much a possibility.

This view, which I would refer to as a "Key Premise" to understand the broader global macro environment, is depicted in the chart below. [Later today I will be sending you and audio/visual summary of this in much greater detail, as I believe it may be the key to understanding why we are in this quagmire and why going forward the US growth capacity could be severely hampered. It has implications for every major market.]

Please click here to view the issue [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/market-vitals/020613%20MV%20TMF.pdf]

Regards, Jack

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Webinar Invite: Japan. The Path of Debt and Currency Markets

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You are cordially invited to join Tres Knippa*, President of Kenai Capital Management and Jack Crooks, President of Black Swan Capital for a complete global macro analysis of the major themes we believe will drive currency and bond trading in Japan over the next year and beyond. We believe there may be incredible opportunities you can begin positioning for now. JAPAN: The Path of Debt and Currency Markets Wednesday, February 13 at 04:00 PM EST Click here to register [http://johncrooks.enterthemeeting.com/m/EQPXGJ3Q] Japan's debt and currency markets are at the mercy of a brazen prime minister and a central bank with a recently eviscerated independence. For the first time in over two decades key asset markets in Japan - the Japanese yen, Nikkei, and Japanese Government Bonds - might no longer be a one-way bet. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has spoken. His orders to the BOJ could serve to turn around a 23 year-long trend ... in a big way. If so, this turn has only just begun. Opportunities abound! The Prime Minister is making bold moves. The Bank of Japan threatened to slow Abe's agenda but a 2/3 majority in the lower house and new leadership appointments in April has given the BOJ little choice but to concur with the whims of Shinzo Abe. - Could this be the catalyst that triggers a debt crisis in the third largest economy in the world? - How low might the yen go? - What are the other global market implications? The way events are progressing 'crisis' and 'Japan' may soon become synonymous. We will be taking your questions during the webinar and look forward to you joining us. Thank you. Jack and Tres ------- *Tres Knippa is a trader, broker, and member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Tres has been trading the futures markets for over 20 years and became a member of the exchange in 1996 after moving to Chicago from Texas. Tres carries positions for himself and his clients in markets all over the world. Tres is the owner and manager of Kenai Capital Management which seeks to profit from what Tres thinks is the coming debt crisis in Japan. Kenai Capital Management is the owner of the website ShortJapanDebt.com [http://www.shortjapandebt.com] which has become a valuable resource for people interested in the Japanese government debt market. Tres is a graduate of the Entrepreneurial Masters Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston, Massachusetts. He also holds a BBA from Baylor University and a Ranch Management Certificate from Texas Christian University. Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past performance is not indicative with future results. This communication is intended for the sole use of the intended recipient and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. No market data or other information is warranted by Kenai Capital Management as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice. Please click here to register [http://johncrooks.enterthemeeting.com/m/EQPXGJ3Q] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Currency Currents Pro: NZD/USD Risk Adj., Positions, Charts, Track

Reco & Update: NZD/USD risk adjustment, Positions, Chart View, Track Record...

25 January 2013 8:10 a.m. ET

Issue #66

Take some risk out of the short NZD/USD trade by adjusting your stop-loss down to 0.8415.

Positions:

Short AUD/USD per issue #49 from 1.0555 [last 1.0427] Stop at 1.0475

Short NZD/USD per issue #57 from 0.8398 [last 0.8364] New stop at 0.8415

Actions:

Stopped out of short USD/JPY per issue #62 with loss of 23 pips

Profit taken on USD/CAD per issue #36 with a profit of 174 pips

NZD/USD Daily: Looking for a cascade break to play catch-up with other Comdols.

Please click here to view the issue [http://www.blackswantrading.com/storage/ccpro-2013/012513%20CCPro%2066%20sla%20nzd%20and%20track%20and%20charts.pdf]

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

Currency Currents Pro Archives [http://www.blackswantrading.com/ccpro-archives/]

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Currency Currents: We're from the IMF and we're here to calm you down.

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We're from the IMF and we're here to calm you down. The International Monetary Fund today released its latest forecast for global economies. Most notably, they revised lower their expected global GDP forecast for 2013: 3.5% vs 3.6% (Oct. est.) But please, please don't worry ... because the IMF had plenty more to say. Paraphrasing Reuters' newsfeed:

* Even though downside risks remain significant, policy actions have lowered acute risks in the euro area and the United States. * The US should agree to raise the debt ceiling, put off excessive fiscal consolidation, and focus on tax and entitlement reforms. * If risks do not materialize then global growth could actually be stronger than forecast. * Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, plus a weaker yen, will boost Japan's economy. * Policy easing in emerging economies has helped to boost growth. * Developing Asia will remain the fastest-growing region in the world. * And the IMF's Chief Economist has said 'currency wars' rhetoric is overblown.

Phew!

Downward growth revisions and crisis risks and all this talk of currency wars was beginning to sound scary.

But the IMF seems relatively reassuring, so things should be fine. But if one were looking for more reassurances, Germany's Finance Minister is out today suggesting the G20 and G7 meetings offer a forum where countries can sort out potential competitive devaluations ...

Currency Currents 23 January 2013 [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/blog/2013/1/23/were-from-the-imf-and-were-here-to-calm-you-down.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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Market Vitals: Growth forecasts are inferior to investor sentiment

Growth vs. Sentiment: The latter is what matters ...

I found lots of good headlines in the Telegraph today. One seizes on the all-powerful monetary-accommodation-as-driver-of-stocks theme. The point: hold on because stocks will soar as central banks go wild.

I can't argue with that - I think it is still the primary driver of markets. Everything else is speed-bumps, mere check-points of investor sentiment until proven otherwise. But there is another headline in the Telegraph suggesting otherwise:

I want to turn bullish, but I can't see where growth is going to come from [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Z8kxgDTTtatBz-pSTl3rt0WWzObkZu5pHSH94raEmEz61-KSj4RmRtgiV5-VTQr0huHcnOe35FskQispPzK4m2sia5UCp2DfcON4FCviNcSHAm9GX2wLLTBShsKjwc3XNE0B02zkK4xkGUee0pZWMLyOs9m22t9bDpegTvgetr2q3NEiX4M5hymaZ1RbbIQglKOPjGwnwdrE7Dg6kQLKMXv80v6l2rjbiDS0mQdNRxjjpyolSK-llw8k1g-njAGzWZvco8mLSxJ-m9lTOWHEOw==]

I understand perfectly this rationale. I just have to disagree with this conclusion. In fact, I'd change the title to ...

Market Vitals | 2 January 2013 [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/market-vitals/010213_mv_telegraph_headlines.pdf] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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