Market Vitals: Watching for a crude downturn despite renewed QE3 hopes ...

Watching to see if crude will lead risk appetite lower despite QE3 hopes ...

US August Nonfarm Payrolls missed significantly - 96,000 vs. 125,000 or so expected. June and July payrolls were revised lower. Everyone is leaning towards more QE3. The euro is surging higher. Risk appetite is on. We are watching crude oil.

Yesterday, on the back of the ECB announcement, crude oil was up big - more than 2%. But by the end of the day, it had given it all back after failing to test recent highs. We've been watching crude the last two weeks because it has approached a logical, technical stopping point. A downturn based on technicals would be playable; a downturn based on technicals and fundamentals would be substantial ...

Market Vitals | 7 September 2012 [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/market-vitals/090712_mv_crude.pdf] ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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