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We're from the IMF and we're here to calm you down. The International Monetary Fund today released its latest forecast for global economies. Most notably, they revised lower their expected global GDP forecast for 2013: 3.5% vs 3.6% (Oct. est.) But please, please don't worry ... because the IMF had plenty more to say. Paraphrasing Reuters' newsfeed:
* Even though downside risks remain significant, policy actions have lowered acute risks in the euro area and the United States. * The US should agree to raise the debt ceiling, put off excessive fiscal consolidation, and focus on tax and entitlement reforms. * If risks do not materialize then global growth could actually be stronger than forecast. * Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, plus a weaker yen, will boost Japan's economy. * Policy easing in emerging economies has helped to boost growth. * Developing Asia will remain the fastest-growing region in the world. * And the IMF's Chief Economist has said 'currency wars' rhetoric is overblown.
Downward growth revisions and crisis risks and all this talk of currency wars was beginning to sound scary.
But the IMF seems relatively reassuring, so things should be fine. But if one were looking for more reassurances, Germany's Finance Minister is out today suggesting the G20 and G7 meetings offer a forum where countries can sort out potential competitive devaluations ...
Currency Currents 23 January 2013 [http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/blog/2013/1/23/were-from-the-imf-and-were-here-to-calm-you-down.html] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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