Monthly Report: Ebb & Flow (Themes only)

0106%20BSL%20EF%20Themes.pdf

Are inflation fears overblown?

A graph of core CPI globally from The Bank Credit Analyst:

122205%20Inflation%20%20BCA%20graph.doc

EURUSD: 240-min chart

Short-term chart shows euro stalling at trend and retracement (62%) support; plus it's looking a bit oversold.

We are looking for longer term confirmation that this move is running out of steam--we don't have it yet.

EURUSD 240-min:
1202205%20eur%20240.pdf

Recommendation Summary thru 21 Dec '05

122105%20Reco%20Summary.pdf

Commitment of Traders Report - Currencies 13 Dec '05

122005%20cot%20currencies.doc

Stopped for loss per Issue #46 British pound

We were quickly stopped out with a loss on our British pound trade this morning.

Trade Recommendation: British pound

Black Swan Letter
Recommendation Issue #46
Currency: British pound - Buying on a stop! (Long spot/Long futures)
20 December 2005 5:30 a.m. EST


Forex:
Buy GBPUSD @ 17674 /STP / SL/ 17565 / PT1/ 17790 / PT2/ 17900

Futures:
Buy Mar '06 BP @ 17671 /STP / SL/ 17562 / PT1/ 17787 / PT2/ 17897

STP – Stop order entry
SL – Stop-loss point
PT1 – Profit target #1
PT2 – Profit target #2

Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

British pound daily Wave count

Has the pound found support near its uptrend channel? Still a bit overbought on the oscillators...but it's starting to look more interesting.

British pound daily Wave count:
121905%20gbp%20daily%20count.png

US $ Index leading S&P 500?

Is the dollar leading? And will it be self-reinforcing, thus leading to further dollar weakness near-term?

S&P 500 Index vs. US $ Index Daily:
120905%20spu%20vs%20%24%20index%20daily.png

S& P 500 test of daily trend...

121805%20spu%20daily.pdf

We like the Mar '06 e-mini S&P futures for a samll bet here...1270 looks like short-term support.