EURUSD: This pair also plays the role of meat grinder!

011306%20euro%2090.pdf

Stop-Loss Adjustment: Issue #51 Australian $

Stop-loss Adjustment:
Issue #51 – Australian $

We recommend you tighten your initial stop-loss per Issue #51, Australian $, to the following:

Forex: 7580

Futures: 7570


Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Comments: Reflation trade? Gold breakout!

Our Aussie short position, from a fundamental standpoint, was predicated on a rest in the metals. But that isn't happening, as you can see clearly from the attached chart.

The dollar is taking some heat. It almost looks like the reflation trade is back. Maybe that is what was taken away from today's US PPI...bonds are higher on the news as core inflation was tame. Added to that we had Mr. T talking tough today.

Gold Daily:
011306%20gold%20daily.pdf

Currency Currents 13 Jan 06

US Producer Prices Today...

bsccc011306.pdf

British pound: Key reversal and Doji time!

The pound appears to be turning over...a decent setup we think.

GBPUSD:
011206%20gbp%20daily.pdf

$-yen short-term setup long?

For short-term players, you might like the setup in $-yen

USDJPY Daily:
011206%20jpy%20daily.pdf

Currency Currents from this morning 12 Jan 06

Our Currency Currents was lost somewhere in the internet ether today. Here it is...fyi...we previewed the Aussie trade in a roundabout way suggesting a coincident break with the metals.

CC:
bsccc011206.pdf

Our email problems continue...

We are still unable to send email from our regular Black Swan server. Our sincere apologies. We will be using the bswancap@yahoo.com alternate account for any updates to recommendations.

Regards,

Jack

Recommendation Summary 12 Jan 06

Stopped-out with profit on remaining lot in Japanese yen per issue #49 today. And we added Aussie short per Issue #51.

Summary:
011206%20Reco%20Summary%201p.pdf

Trade Recommendation: Issue #51 Australian dollar

Black Swan Letter
Recommendation Issue #51
Currency: Australian dollar
12 Jan 2006 5:30 a.m. EST

Forex:
Sell AUDUSD @ 7530 STP / SL 7610 / PT1/ 7445 / PT2/7360

Futures:
Sell Mar AD @7520 STP / SL 7600 / PT1/7435 / PT2/ 7360

STP – Stop order entry
SL – Stop-loss point
PT1 – Profit target #1
PT2 – Profit target #2

Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Recommendation Summary 12 Jan 06

011206%20Reco%20Summary%204a.pdf

Stop-Loss Adjustment: Issue #49 Japanese yen

Stop-loss Adjustment:
Issue #49 – Japanese yen!

We recommend you adjust your stop-loss on any remain lots per Issue #49, yen, to at least PT1 as follows:

Forex: 11440

Futures: 8803


Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Commitment of Traders 3 Jan '06: Currency Futures

Comments:

Decent postive swing in Swiss franc sentiment, as +21.8 k addition to the long side--still relatively bearish as of the 3rd.
Still a lot of love for Canadian dollar, as long positions outnumber shorts 5 to 1.
Summary:
COT%20011006.pdf

Higher Stocks & Lower Dollar Theme Playing Out So Far...

European Business Conditions: MS

Business conditions for large European companies have not significantly changed since our previous European analysts survey (October 19, 2005). At 56, our synthetic index is roughly half a standard deviation above the break even 50 line, indicating a reasonable although not accelerating pace of expansion. The message here is slightly different from large sample manufacturing surveys, which have kept improving over the last months.

Morgan Stanley
1-11-06

Pound vs. Aussie Daily

011106%20gbp%20vs%20aud.pdf

UK Trade Deficit Story from the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4601442.stm

Euro bulls telling half the story?

This email exchange is between and a very astute economist (DL) who was trained at an Ivy League pillar; he resides in France, and is a friend and reader of Currency Currents. We thought you might find it interesting...

DL:Bloomberg, jan 9


* LEAD: eurozone retail sales increased "the most in two years."
&
* Later: this index has been calculated...for only two years.


* LEAD paragraph: "a seasonally adjusted index...rose"
&
* End of same paragraph: "sales fell from the year earlier for the 20th month.

P.S. the number of unemployed in Germany ROSE last month....it is only
the month-to-month seasonal adjustments that show a decline.

BSC:Wow! Statistics lie and...

DL: Actually, it is the reporter who is lying by not emphasizing that there are two time series -- intra-year seasonally adjusted, and year-over-year -- and that in this case they provide divergent views.

The Bloomberg reporters put it all in the article...they can claim "we did tell you"...but they carefully wrote the headline and the lead paragraphs to give an unambiguous interpretation to the data.

There's a notion I've been working on, and if I ever write it up I'll tell you....that people in business serve their constituency, and sometimes that constituency has interests and opinions that trump their interest in profits.

Is it an accident that virtually all EU-based news sources write completely one-sided articles about the US$/Euro ? Over the past few years, I have seen article after article in the FT about fx rates, each article quoting multiple traders, pf managers, economists....and ALL the people quoted are bullish on the euro. Always.

Aussie Daily Chart Setup for Issue #50 Reco

010106%20aussie%20chart.pdf

Trade Recommendation: Issue #50 Australian dollar

Black Swan Letter
Recommendation Issue #50
Currency: Australian dollar
10 Jan 2006 10:05 a.m. EST

Entering only on a stop-order!

Forex:
Sell AUDUSD @ 7479 STP / SL 7567 / PT1/ 7412 / PT2/7250

Futures:
Sell Mar AD @7469 STP / SL 7557 / PT1/7402 / PT2/ 7240

STP – Stop order entry
SL – Stop-loss point
PT1 – Profit target #1
PT2 – Profit target #2

Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Stop Loss Adjustment: Issue #49 Japanese yen

Stop-loss Adjustment:
Issue #49 – Japanese yen!

We recommend you adjust your stop-loss on any remain lots per Issue #49, yen, to at least PT1 as follows:

Forex: 11510

Futures: 8759


Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Stop-loss Adjustment Issue #48 euro!

Stop-loss Adjustment
Issue #48 – euro!

We recommend you adjust your stop-loss on any remain lots per Issue #48, euro, to the following:

Forex: 12070

Futures: 12118

Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Recommendation Summary 6 Jan '06

010605%20Reco%20Summary.pdf