Jobs Surprise! Revisions??

Dollar surging on the surprise job news...CAD still holding okay on its own surprisingly strong jobs report...the rest of the pack hit...but 12680 support near-term on EURUSD holding so far...

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Bloomberg headline:

Unemployment Drops to 4.4% as U.S. Adds More Jobs (Update2)

By Joe Richter

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. added 92,000 jobs in October, and payroll growth in prior months was revised higher for the second time in a row, pushing the unemployment rate to a five-year low.

Last month's gain in employment followed increases of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August, both higher than previously reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent the previous month.

Canadian Positive Jobs Surprising Likely Helping the $ before Non-Farm Payrolls

Canada Adds 50,500 Jobs in October, on Gains in West (Update1)

By Theophilos Argitis

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian employers added more than three times as many jobs as expected in October and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting gains in oil-rich Alberta.

Employment rose by 50,500 jobs, the largest gain since May, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent in September. Average hourly wages rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier.

Stop-loss Adjustment Issue #149 euro

Given the trading credo that one shouldn’t let a profit turn into a loss (and that is suspect to practical interpretation no matter how good it sounds on paper), it probably makes sense here to tighten up our stop on any EURUSD positions to our breakeven entry…a key fib support level comes in at 12725 (euro Dec 06 futures at 12757); see the chart attached.


If you have any remaining lots open per Issue #149 euro we recommend you adjust your stop-loss to breakeven entry…



Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

USDCHF 120-min w/levels and Fib extension numbers...

The Swiss is lagging both the pound and euro...if we do get a rally in euro today on the jobs report, Swiss might play some catch-up...

USDCHF 120-min:
110306%20chf%20120%20min.pdf

Commitment of Traders Report: Currencies 24 Oct 06

Comments:

Japanese yen net short increased by 24,712

Australian dollar longs…an extreme high?

COT Report Summary:
COT%20102406.pdf

Euro vs. 30-yr T-Bond Futures Correlation still in play...

EURUSD vs. 30-yr T-bond Futures Daily Chart:
110106%20euro%20and%20bonds.pdf

Swiss franc is lagging...

USDCHF Daily Chart:
110106%20chf%20daily.pdf

US Slowdown Concerns Gathering Momentum...

Rosenberg Says U.S. Economy Is on `Knife's Edge'

By Thomas R. Keene and Brendan Moynihan

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is ``on a knife's edge,'' and growth may slump to less than a 2 percent pace next year unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. economists.

``Our recession-risk indicator is now at 51 percent odds for an actual economic downturn in the coming year,'' writes David A. Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, in a note today. The last time the indicator registered that high was in the recession year 2001. product growth, adjusted for inflation, compared with Rosenberg's forecast of 2 percent growth in 2007 (the blue line). The 10-year trend in real GDP growth is shown in green.

Rosenberg says his forecast for next year is ``predicated on the Fed cutting rates to 4 percent next year'' from the current 5.25 percent.

``Without that stimulus, growth could well be closer to a 1 percent to 1.5 percent range,'' he says. That's ``weak enough to be considered in the `hard-landing' zone,'' he says.

EURUSD Daily Chart

110106%20eur%20daily.pdf

EURUSD 90-min key support 12672

EURUSD-90 min:
103106%20eur%2090-min.pdf

Stopped out of British pound Issue #151

USDCAD Daily Ranging...Intraday higher

USDCAD Daily:
103106%20cad%20daily.pdf

USDCAD 60-min:
103106%20cad%2060.pdf

GBPUSD 90-min Chart

A bit "overbought"...playing for an extension before a correction...key near-term support at 19004

GBPUSD 90-min:
103006%20gbp%2090-min.pdf

GBPUSD Daily Chart with levels

GBPUSD Daily:
103006%20gbp%20daily.pdf

EURUSD vs. 30-yr T-Bond Futures Daily...

They seem to be moving on the same dynamic--conversion to the US slowdown theme. We may be "talking" our story here, but see the attached chart...

EURUSD vs. 30-yr T-Bond futures:
103006%20euro%20vs%20bonds.pdf

Canadian dollar whacked on lower Mfg. Price Data today

Prices charged by manufacturers [in Canada], as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), were down 1.6% in September, following a 0.5% drop in August. Lower prices for petroleum products were the major contributors to this monthly decrease.

The 12-month change in the IPPI was up 1.3%, a lower rate of growth compared to the year-over-year increase of 3.6% in August. Upward pressure came mainly from higher prices for primary metal products.

Recommendation Issue #151 British pound

Black Swan Letter
Recommendation Issue: 151 Short-term
Currency: British pound
30-Oct-06 7:21 a.m. EST/GMT 12:21

Forex:
Buy GBPUSD @ 19025 STP / SL/ 18980 / PT1/ 19070 / PT2/ 19125

Futures:
Buy BP Dec '06 19033 STP / SL/ 18988 / PT1/ 19078 / PT2/ 19133

STP – Stop order entry
MKT - Market order entry
LMT - Limit order entry
SL – Stop-loss point
PT1 – Profit target #1
PT2 – Profit target #2

Risk Disclosure: There is substantial risk involved in trading in the forex or futures market on a highly leveraged basis. No trader who is unfamiliar, either himself or together with his financial advisers, with such risks should consider trading in the forex or futures markets. Neither Black Swan Capital LLC nor Jack Crooks accept liability for any losses that may directly or indirectly result from any advice or opinion or information provided in this service, whether negligent or otherwise.

Track Record as of 27 Oct 06

Track as of 10/27:
102706RS.pdf

Positioning:
Open 1 lot per Issue #149 euro - Intermediate-term
Open remaining lot #2 per Issue #150 C$ - Short-term (stop now at b/e entry)