USDJPY 90-min

USDJPY 90: Fib resistance at 10814 and 10882. Key resistance at 11011 (a move above 110-level sets up a test of 114). We believe this move is corrective and ultimately the yen moves to 100 and beyond.

USDJPY Daily

USDJPY Daily: Correcting from a a bit oversold; but we think we are in the midst of wave 3 of (3) which carries to 100 $-yen, at least. Near-term 110-level is he resistance.

AUDUSD 90-min

AUDUSD 90-min: 8850 key resistance (see daily below for others). A move above 8850 sets up a quick test of the key 8900 level.

AUDUSD Daily

AUDUSD Daily: Resistance at 8850; then 8956. Critical resistance at 9019 (above there a we look for a test of the old high at the 9400 level. We expect the latest move to be a correction in the longer term down trend.

GBPCHF 240-min Oversold? Key resistanct at 21783

GBPUSD 90-min

GBPUSD 90: Key resistance 19848; a test of 19910 on a move above there. (See Daily Chart below)

GBPUSD Daily - Testing Daily Downtrend

GBPUSD Daily: Our view hasn't changed - the pound is going lower. The latest move appears corrective; but given how far the pound has fallen, we need to wait for a change in this corrective momentum before acting i.e. establishing a long-term short position. Fib retracement levels are listed in the chart...first is 19910; then 20087 (key chart level 21010).

EURUSD 90-min

EURUSD 90-min: 14784 key resistance....

EURUSD Daily...Latest Move A Correction?

EURUSD Daily: Was the latest move corrective? 14784 is key resistance (seen in the 90-min chart above). A move above 14784 sets the stage for a test of 14858; then the old high at 14966. The euro move was strong on the back of tough talk from the ECB yesterday, plus suprisingly good data from Germany. In this environment it is tough to determine if euro price action was good relative to euro news or was another stock-related risk appetite move.

NZDUSD Daily: Exposed to global growth!

GBPUSD Daily: BOE Rate Cut Likely Again

Though concern of rising inflation is still in play, the rapid deteriation in housing and the financial services sector suggest rate relief will trump inflation...

Japanese yen futures: Comparing the 1998 move to 2007/08 to date...

012308%20yen%20futures%20potential.pdf

The yen had a major carry trade position that came unwound back in 1998. The total carry at the time was estimated at $138 billion. The Asian Financial Crisis was the trigger for the unwind.

This time around $1 trillion has been the estimated carry trade. A lot has been unwound, but there is likely more to go.

Key Point: The yen-$ has moved 16% to date; it move over 46% last time around.

USDJPY Daily: Continues to thrive on risk!

AUDUSD Daily: Vulnerable to Risk Aversion - 8554 key support

AUDUSD 60-min Chart: Breaking down again?

Euro-$/Crude Connection

012308%20euro.pdf